To the Point - August 31, 2012
China – a potential watershed for global growth
- Economic activity in China is slowing considerably, and the risk for a hard landing has increased. Our main scenario is GDP growth of just below 8 % this year, and a moderate amount of stimulus to counteract the slowdown.
- The effects on the global economy if China’s economy landed harder should not be underestimated as China alone accounts for 50% of global growth. Financial and commodity markets would also be affected, as would geopolitical and trade relations.