To the Point - February 29, 2012
Green shoots of economic recovery – but beware of frost!
- Stronger employment, housing starts and business spending in the US, continued growth in the emerging markets, and ECB:s measures lowering pessimism in the euro zone, create green shoots in the global recovery.
- However, recovery shoots are sensitive to frost, e.g. from the higher oil price. In addition, there are short term risks with regard to the euro zone and Asia. The medium and long term challenges are related to the sovereign debt crises in the US, UK and Japan, where market confidence is so far holding up well. Also, China’s financial liberalisation is a major global risk going forward.